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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 29 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 28 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xibbe · 16 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 16 games
44%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 19 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
39%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 17 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 17 games
35%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
44%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 16 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
357 picks · 326 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 835 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
307 picks · 157 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
289 picks · 329 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 779 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
279 picks · 247 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
273 picks · 124 bans
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
267 picks · 171 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% AVULUS
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total55% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:33
AVULUS 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 26:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarLorenof
52% · 46 games47% · 188 games
Shadow FiendShad
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSmiling Knight
47% · 197 games47% · 60 games
SlardarMikSa`
Slardar
Pudge
PudgeSabeRLight-
54% · 38 games48% · 216 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderEkki
51% · 256 games63% · 101 game
Naga SirenLelis
Naga Siren
Enchantress
EnchantressJANTER
48% · 182 games45% · 154 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed34:29
AVULUS 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by AVULUS in 41:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
58% · 221 game53% · 226 games
DoomShad
Doom
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
49% · 118 games46% · 289 games
Dragon KnightStojkov
Dragon Knight
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLorenof
50% · 199 games40% · 133 games
AxeMikSa`
Axe
Puck
PuckEkki
53% · 309 games50% · 205 games
PhoenixLelis
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroJANTER
50% · 174 games51% · 168 games
DisruptorDaze
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed37:34
AVULUS 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by AVULUS in 58:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
50% · 296 games50% · 204 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
53% · 168 games47% · 147 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Earthshaker
EarthshakerLorenof
54% · 277 games46% · 273 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Pugna
PugnaJANTER
54% · 272 games49% · 237 games
DawnbreakerLelis
Dawnbreaker
Disruptor
DisruptorEkki
50% · 174 games47% · 326 games
TinyDaze
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 55%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3