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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Palianytsialoss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 23 games
74%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 23 games
74%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 23 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 19 games
74%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 18 games
78%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 18 games
72%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Ekki · 17 games
59%

Palianytsia

Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 18 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshrac
QBFY · 16 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 16 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 16 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 12 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
kreker · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
437 picks · 577 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
373 picks · 391 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
324 picks · 387 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 453 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
304 picks · 577 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
286 picks · 156 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 329 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
259 picks · 766 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 41%
Hero pool strength62% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total90% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:8
AVULUS 76%Palianytsia 24%
The model gave 76% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 23:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
50% · 303 games46% · 268 games
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
52% · 52 games54% · 270 games
TimbersawfortniteMan
Timbersaw
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
56% · 112 games51% · 95 games
Queen of PainMoonlight
Queen of Pain
Tusk
TuskEkki
42% · 210 games51% · 331 game
Hoodwinkkreker
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressSoNNeikO
49% · 287 games
Game 2prediction missed10:12
AVULUS 76%Palianytsia 24%
The model gave 76% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 35:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSmiling Knight
58% · 179 games48% · 289 games
Dragon KnightCrystallize
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
46% · 149 games49% · 426 games
PangolierMoonlight
Pangolier
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
49% · 127 games46% · 49 games
Night StalkerfortniteMan
Night Stalker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkEkki
57% · 266 games49% · 232 games
Lionkreker
Lion
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
50% · 275 games
Game 3prediction correct30:9
AVULUS 78%Palianytsia 22%
The model gave 78% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 27:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
54% · 277 games42% · 317 games
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Underlord
UnderlordXibbe
55% · 54 games49% · 253 games
DoomfortniteMan
Doom
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
60% · 102 games43% · 134 games
LinaMoonlight
Lina
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
52% · 266 games47% · 278 games
Lionkreker
Lion
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
52% · 283 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 90%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3