?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 21 game
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 20 games
65%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 17 games
82%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 17 games
76%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 17 games
82%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Ekki · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 17 games
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
75%

PARIVISION

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
No[o]ne · 4 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
DM · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
9Class · 3 games
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrider
9Class · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
352 picks · 318 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
343 picks · 466 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 464 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
303 picks · 179 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
302 picks · 585 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
271 picks · 332 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
268 picks · 442 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
250 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% AVULUS
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total50% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:41
AVULUS 52%PARIVISION 48%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
51% · 134 games51% · 270 games
LunaCrystallis
Luna
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
53% · 131 game49% · 406 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXibbe
49% · 273 games53% · 106 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
46% · 279 games50% · 153 games
Marci9Class
Marci
Tusk
TuskEkki
53% · 237 games46% · 119 games
DisruptorDukalis
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed5:29
AVULUS 52%PARIVISION 48%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 24:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
54% · 92 games52% · 58 games
BristlebackCrystallis
Bristleback
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSmiling Knight
49% · 81 game46% · 74 games
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
Earth Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
45% · 104 games59% · 131 game
Dark SeerDM
Dark Seer
Lion
LionEkki
51% · 75 games40% · 73 games
Marci9Class
Marci
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSoNNeikO
64% · 58 games44% · 74 games
PugnaDukalis
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 50%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2