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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 37 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 30 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 25 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 18 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
35%
Warlock
Warlock
SoNNeikO · 17 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 16 games
56%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 21 game
48%
Doom
Doomsignature
Batyuk · 18 games
61%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 13 games
46%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 12 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 11 games
27%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
532 picks · 557 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 417 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 388 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 513 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
318 picks · 197 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
318 picks · 713 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
310 picks · 584 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
299 picks · 437 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:29
AVULUS 68%Passion UA 32%
The model gave 68% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Passion UA in 35:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
50% · 258 games51% · 218 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Lifestealer
LifestealerKami
54% · 127 games43% · 238 games
TerrorbladeCrystallize
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckWorick
52% · 280 games44% · 182 games
Shadow FiendMoonlight
Shadow Fiend
Chen
ChenFly
58% · 139 games49% · 388 games
TinyQBFY
Tiny
Tusk
TuskdEsire
48% · 382 games50% · 160 games
Pugnakreker
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct48:15
AVULUS 66%Passion UA 34%
The model gave 66% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomKami
53% · 341 game49% · 294 games
TerrorbladeCrystallize
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
48% · 236 games57% · 310 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
54% · 340 games52% · 172 games
Queen of PainMoonlight
Queen of Pain
Warlock
WarlockFly
50% · 243 games48% · 288 games
Shadow Shamankreker
Shadow Shaman
Marci
MarcidEsire
43% · 174 games46% · 270 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed24:34
AVULUS 66%Passion UA 34%
The model gave 66% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Passion UA in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKami
56% · 173 games57% · 62 games
HuskarBatyuk
Huskar
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
45% · 195 games55% · 206 games
DoomCrystallize
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
45% · 274 games48% · 375 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroFly
45% · 263 games50% · 220 games
Warlockkreker
Warlock
Marci
MarcidEsire
46% · 137 games54% · 179 games
LionQBFY
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 80%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3