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CCT Season 2 Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 18 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 17 games
41%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
dEsire · 16 games
19%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Xibbe · 15 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Ekki · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 14 games
43%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dEsire · 14 games
43%

Passion UA

Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 35 games
51%
Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 27 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
46%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Batyuk · 23 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 22 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Crystallize · 22 games
59%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
785 picks · 363 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
579 picks · 582 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
579 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
492 picks · 573 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
490 picks · 329 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 268 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
469 picks · 753 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 1109 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:25
AVULUS 49%Passion UA 51%
The model gave 51% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 31:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackssnovv1
60% · 361 game47% · 404 games
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Huskar
Huskardualrazee
53% · 75 games48% · 220 games
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
Pangolier
PangolierCloud
48% · 451 game48% · 463 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Warlock
Warlockasdekor_r
49% · 357 games47% · 331 game
Snapfirekreker
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskWein
52% · 491 game48% · 317 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct13:30
AVULUS 48%Passion UA 52%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marcissnovv1
52% · 209 games52% · 342 games
Nature's ProphetMoonlight
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
46% · 330 games49% · 197 games
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
50% · 250 games48% · 168 games
WindrangerCrystallize
Windranger
Batrider
BatriderWein
51% · 269 games51% · 359 games
Warlockkreker
Warlock
Snapfire
Snapfireasdekor_r
47% · 250 games54% · 242 games
BaneQBFY
Bane
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 52%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2