CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Peru Rejectsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 15 games
Lycanoften banned
Xibbe · 15 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 13 games
Dark Willow
dEsire · 13 games
Peru Rejects
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
Disruptor
Matthew · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Michael · 8 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 8 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Matthew · 8 games
Slardarsignature
DarkMago · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 7 games
Bristlebackoften banned
payk · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
745 picks · 327 bans
Jakiro
603 picks · 584 bans
Hoodwink
598 picks · 302 bans
Dragon Knight
587 picks · 742 bans
Tusk
552 picks · 337 bans
Disruptor
538 picks · 523 bans
Centaur Warrunner
514 picks · 608 bans
Mars
503 picks · 754 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:13
AVULUS 50%Peru Rejects 50%
The model gave 50% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautssnovv1
MedusaParker
Ember Spiritdualrazee
TidehunterSacred
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
MarsDarkMago
Ringmasterasdekor_r
Keeper of the LightElmisho
TuskWein
BatriderMichael
Game 2prediction missed0:4
AVULUS 53%Peru Rejects 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 56:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow ShamanWein
Queen of PainDarkMago
Warlockasdekor_r
JakiroParker
Storm Spiritdualrazee
DisruptorElmisho
Abaddonssnovv1
JuggernautMichael
TidehunterCloud
Dark SeerSacred
Game 3prediction correct36:14
AVULUS 53%Peru Rejects 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 29:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonssnovv1
Dark SeerSacred
Storm Spiritdualrazee
JuggernautMichael
TidehunterCloud
Queen of PainDarkMago
Warlockasdekor_r
JakiroParker
Shadow ShamanWein
DisruptorElmisho
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 54%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3