?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 29 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 28 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xibbe · 15 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
40%

Pipsqueak+4

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 10 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 9 games
78%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 8 games
63%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kidaro · 8 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
xn丶e · 7 games
71%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 6 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
xn丶e · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
335 picks · 314 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 814 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
285 picks · 142 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
281 picks · 314 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 761 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
271 picks · 248 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 173 bans
50%
Marci
Marci
262 picks · 804 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 71%
Hero pool strength59% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:24
AVULUS 47%Pipsqueak+4 53%
The model gave 53% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by AVULUS in 44:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckLorenof
55% · 300 games56% · 45 games
Anti-MageNande
Anti-Mage
Ursa
UrsaSmiling Knight
46% · 131 game49% · 260 games
Dragon Knightxn丶e
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
44% · 175 games56% · 137 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireEkki
50% · 150 games48% · 340 games
BatriderKaori
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaJANTER
45% · 219 games51% · 193 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct16:43
AVULUS 47%Pipsqueak+4 53%
The model gave 53% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 39:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLorenof
54% · 201 game46% · 187 games
MarsNande
Mars
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
54% · 171 game49% · 147 games
UndyingPalantimos
Undying
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
53% · 108 games50% · 197 games
Queen of Painxn丶e
Queen of Pain
Snapfire
SnapfireJANTER
49% · 144 games45% · 220 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
TuskEkki
48% · 346 games52% · 219 games
EnchantressKidaro
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed32:23
AVULUS 47%Pipsqueak+4 53%
The model gave 53% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by AVULUS in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSmiling Knight
49% · 152 games46% · 253 games
DawnbreakerPalantimos
Dawnbreaker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLorenof
51% · 404 games47% · 177 games
MarsNande
Mars
Venomancer
VenomancerSabeRLight-
51% · 47 games50% · 162 games
Earthshakerxn丶e
Earthshaker
Phoenix
PhoenixJANTER
53% · 301 game53% · 310 games
BatriderKaori
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorEkki
50% · 211 games50% · 213 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 51%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3