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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Runa Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 31 game
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 25 games
52%
Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 25 games
36%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 22 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 19 games
37%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 17 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 17 games
41%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 16 games
56%

Runa Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 41 game
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 37 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 37 games
65%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
69%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 32 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 31 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
487 picks · 250 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
468 picks · 459 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 958 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
301 picks · 147 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
292 picks · 481 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
291 picks · 487 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
289 picks · 622 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:15
AVULUS 46%Runa Team 54%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 32:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
55% · 342 games49% · 287 games
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
49% · 529 games54% · 365 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Marci
MarciSabeRLight-
43% · 164 games54% · 369 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
50% · 238 games46% · 293 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireThiolicor
48% · 315 games52% · 274 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed29:6
AVULUS 47%Runa Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 27:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
52% · 292 games44% · 150 games
Abaddonnesfeer
Abaddon
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
54% · 387 games49% · 355 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Undying
UndyingSabeRLight-
50% · 153 games50% · 249 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfirePuppey
44% · 211 games61% · 105 games
ChenHduo
Chen
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerThiolicor
60% · 12 games43% · 196 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 56%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2