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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 31 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 30 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 28 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 26 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 26 games
65%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 24 games
54%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 22 games
77%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 21 game
71%

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 15 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 673 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 493 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 535 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
354 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 335 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 595 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
305 picks · 675 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:16
AVULUS 52%Shopify Rebellion 48%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSmiling Knight
50% · 227 games57% · 175 games
WeaverTimado
Weaver
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
62% · 54 games55% · 189 games
MagnusYopaj
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderStormstormer
46% · 224 games47% · 68 games
Visagemangekyou
Visage
Enchantress
EnchantressSoNNeikO
49% · 196 games36% · 33 games
Bounty HunterHellscream
Bounty Hunter
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
44% · 27 games48% · 263 games
PhoenixSkem
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed15:44
AVULUS 53%Shopify Rebellion 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
42% · 86 games48% · 157 games
MagnusTimado
Magnus
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSmiling Knight
56% · 86 games49% · 209 games
Doommangekyou
Doom
Batrider
BatriderStormstormer
50% · 242 games48% · 100 games
ZeusYopaj
Zeus
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
51% · 27 games55% · 64 games
Ogre MagiSkem
Ogre Magi
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
52% · 213 games49% · 124 games
MuertaHellscream
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 50%
Accuracy by game1 of 2