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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Silkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 21 game
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 19 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 16 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 16 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 14 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Wein · 13 games
38%

Silk

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Michael · 4 games
0%
Kez
Kezoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Adrx · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Genek · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Genek · 2 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Genek · 2 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 949 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 435 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
484 picks · 636 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
468 picks · 625 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 963 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 662 bans
59%
Warlock
Warlock
399 picks · 242 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 539 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 20%
Hero pool strength57% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:37
AVULUS 69%Silk 31%
The model gave 69% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 56:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverTA2000
50% · 53 games49% · 66 games
LunaDaaD-
Luna
Puck
Puckdualrazee
55% · 181 game43% · 273 games
BeastmasterAdrx
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
46% · 96 games41% · 70 games
TinkerGenek
Tinker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionasdekor_r
59% · 92 games52% · 149 games
PhoenixCHAAANNN
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanWein
56% · 136 games
Game 2prediction correct37:17
AVULUS 67%Silk 33%
The model gave 67% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 25:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonTA2000
48% · 288 games52% · 346 games
GyrocopterDaaD-
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
46% · 318 games56% · 393 games
BatriderAdrx
Batrider
Razor
RazorCorrupted
41% · 60 games52% · 305 games
RingmasterCHAAANNN
Ringmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanWein
53% · 285 games54% · 144 games
MagnusGenek
Magnus
Disruptor
Disruptorasdekor_r
44% · 237 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 81%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2