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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 39 games
51%
Batrider
Batrider
Ekki · 25 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 25 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 22 games
77%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ekki · 21 game
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 20 games
75%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 27 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 25 games
60%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 19 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
494 picks · 486 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 548 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
362 picks · 169 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
279 picks · 535 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
262 picks · 372 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
260 picks · 516 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
260 picks · 149 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
258 picks · 145 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:38
AVULUS 48%Talon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMo13ei
49% · 108 games51% · 203 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaSmiling Knight
51% · 97 games45% · 76 games
Abaddon23savage
Abaddon
Bristleback
BristlebackXibbe
55% · 228 games53% · 187 games
DoomWs
Doom
Ringmaster
RingmasterFly
43% · 139 games43% · 119 games
SilencerKuku
Silencer
Earthshaker
EarthshakerdEsire
51% · 107 games56% · 94 games
Shadow ShamanJhocam
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct27:14
AVULUS 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSmiling Knight
54% · 186 games44% · 136 games
Medusa23savage
Medusa
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
52% · 252 games45% · 154 games
KunkkaMikoto
Kunkka
Underlord
UnderlordXibbe
48% · 70 games54% · 267 games
Sand KingWs
Sand King
Windranger
WindrangerdEsire
50% · 186 games43% · 96 games
SilencerKuku
Silencer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFly
61% · 52 games49% · 93 games
SlarkJhocam
Slark
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 52%
Accuracy by game2 of 2