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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 25 games
72%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 24 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 23 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 19 games
79%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 19 games
74%

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 25 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 25 games
76%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
462 picks · 622 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
391 picks · 438 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 481 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
336 picks · 419 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 612 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
310 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
293 picks · 359 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
275 picks · 273 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:32
AVULUS 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 50:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
53% · 288 games48% · 187 games
RazormiCKe
Razor
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
56% · 178 games49% · 241 game
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerStormstormer
55% · 53 games51% · 162 games
TerrorbladeSabeRLight-
Terrorblade
Snapfire
SnapfireEkki
47% · 152 games49% · 155 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
52% · 200 games42% · 126 games
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct17:42
AVULUS 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSmiling Knight
53% · 197 games55% · 132 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Underlord
UnderlordXibbe
49% · 98 games52% · 113 games
Earth SpiritNisha
Earth Spirit
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
48% · 166 games49% · 98 games
TerrorbladeSabeRLight-
Terrorblade
Lion
LionEkki
54% · 240 games47% · 304 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
51% · 236 games43% · 290 games
TuskiNSaNiA
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 70%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2