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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Secretwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stormstormer · 1 game
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Xibbe · 1 game
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Stormstormer · 1 game
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
Smiling Knight · 1 game
100%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 1 game
100%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Xibbe · 1 game
100%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batridersignature
Puppey · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Shishak · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 9 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
56%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
56%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Crystallis · 8 games
63%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
BOOM · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
421 picks · 353 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 451 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
387 picks · 828 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
380 picks · 869 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
362 picks · 752 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 517 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
335 picks · 503 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 580 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:22
AVULUS 53%Team Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Team Secret in 26:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastStormstormer
53% · 238 games45% · 288 games
Dragon KnightShad
Dragon Knight
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXibbe
48% · 197 games45% · 227 games
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerSmiling Knight
44% · 170 games46% · 253 games
PhoenixTobi
Phoenix
Enigma
EnigmaEkki
56% · 88 games57% · 107 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSoNNeikO
55% · 234 games56% · 52 games
Nyx AssassinKyzko
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct39:19
AVULUS 53%Team Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSmiling Knight
43% · 100 games55% · 85 games
AlchemistShad
Alchemist
Huskar
HuskarStormstormer
49% · 31 game56% · 189 games
KunkkaAdzantick
Kunkka
Tusk
TuskEkki
42% · 130 games53% · 190 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXibbe
54% · 238 games51% · 267 games
RubickKyzko
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
46% · 242 games41% · 10 games
TinkerPuppey
Tinker
Game 3prediction missed15:35
AVULUS 53%Team Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Team Secret in 47:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
50% · 43 games57% · 104 games
Chaos KnightShad
Chaos Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastStormstormer
49% · 168 games54% · 66 games
Queen of PainAdzantick
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
54% · 60 games50% · 151 game
WindrangerTobi
Windranger
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
42% · 193 games45% · 209 games
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskEkki
46% · 105 games58% · 39 games
Nyx AssassinKyzko
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 54%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3