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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 16 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 15 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 14 games
50%

Team Spirit Academy

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 9 games
22%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kyford · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 7 games
29%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
kyford · 6 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 6 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
626 picks · 260 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
611 picks · 597 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
559 picks · 721 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
530 picks · 324 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
520 picks · 257 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
485 picks · 562 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
460 picks · 434 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
454 picks · 631 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 35%
Hero pool strength57% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:8
AVULUS 75%Team Spirit Academy 25%
The model gave 75% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerssnovv1
56% · 204 games54% · 88 games
Juggernautrubikon155
Juggernaut
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
48% · 162 games55% · 304 games
BristlebackSunshineRR
Bristleback
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
51% · 205 games50% · 449 games
Tiny86
Tiny
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
48% · 470 games46% · 431 game
Warlockkyford
Warlock
Tusk
TuskWein
46% · 452 games47% · 221 game
Dark WillowAidar
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct32:17
AVULUS 72%Team Spirit Academy 28%
The model gave 72% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 29:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magessnovv1
53% · 33 games55% · 230 games
Morphlingrubikon155
Morphling
Tiny
Tinydualrazee
47% · 290 games53% · 157 games
Primal Beast86
Primal Beast
Axe
AxeCorrupted
45% · 120 games53% · 116 games
Night StalkerSunshineRR
Night Stalker
Warlock
Warlockasdekor_r
47% · 290 games48% · 522 games
Jakirokyford
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskWein
51% · 324 games48% · 32 games
GrimstrokeAidar
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 87%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2