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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 36 games
61%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 35 games
49%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 31 game
52%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 31 game
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 28 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 25 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 24 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 22 games
59%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 19 games
84%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 18 games
72%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 12 games
75%
Muerta
Muertasignature
pLAnet · 10 games
60%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
pLAnet · 10 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
shiro · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
567 picks · 806 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 304 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
431 picks · 803 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 662 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
405 picks · 866 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
390 picks · 369 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
385 picks · 1042 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 523 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:16
AVULUS 36%Team Tidebound 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by AVULUS in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
51% · 90 games50% · 158 games
Phantom Assassinshiro
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
51% · 357 games47% · 302 games
BeastmasterFaith_bian
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXibbe
48% · 132 games58% · 172 games
MagnusNothingToSay
Magnus
Tinker
TinkerSoNNeikO
56% · 62 games51% · 59 games
RingmasterpLAnet
Ringmaster
Windranger
WindrangerdEsire
46% · 98 games36% · 48 games
Silencery`
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed28:14
AVULUS 39%Team Tidebound 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by AVULUS in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMo13ei
52% · 238 games54% · 52 games
LycanFaith_bian
Lycan
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
57% · 71 game42% · 143 games
Phantom Assassinshiro
Phantom Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXibbe
52% · 101 game46% · 69 games
KunkkaNothingToSay
Kunkka
Night Stalker
Night StalkerdEsire
59% · 77 games45% · 148 games
WindrangerpLAnet
Windranger
Bane
BaneSoNNeikO
54% · 28 games43% · 103 games
Warlocky`
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 74%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2