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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 29 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 28 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xibbe · 15 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
40%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 29 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
Antares · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
313 picks · 288 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
313 picks · 781 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
269 picks · 731 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
267 picks · 300 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
264 picks · 250 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
260 picks · 753 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
257 picks · 122 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:40
AVULUS 44%Virtus.pro 56%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 46:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
41% · 30 games61% · 33 games
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLorenof
48% · 155 games51% · 298 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
48% · 122 games50% · 139 games
MarsDaxak
Mars
Warlock
WarlockJANTER
45% · 132 games41% · 9 games
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Clockwerk
ClockwerkEkki
51% · 208 games55% · 168 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed38:29
AVULUS 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by AVULUS in 51:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSmiling Knight
47% · 119 games51% · 171 game
MedusaTimado
Medusa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLorenof
50% · 206 games48% · 229 games
Queen of PainAbed
Queen of Pain
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
52% · 95 games48% · 188 games
MarsDaxak
Mars
Batrider
BatriderEkki
46% · 269 games51% · 159 games
SnapfireAntares
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaJANTER
53% · 188 games53% · 130 games
BaneFly
Bane
Game 3prediction correct20:31
AVULUS 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
48% · 355 games53% · 220 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
42% · 364 games54% · 288 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
49% · 228 games55% · 385 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Lion
LionEkki
48% · 249 games50% · 133 games
SnapfireFly
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressJANTER
50% · 244 games51% · 414 games
BatriderAntares
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 62%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3