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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 29 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 28 games
39%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 25 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 20 games
70%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 16 games
44%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 31 game
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 23 games
52%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 18 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 18 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
Antares · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
419 picks · 381 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
385 picks · 193 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 889 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
314 picks · 357 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 234 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
283 picks · 138 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
279 picks · 680 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 808 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total67% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:20
AVULUS 39%Virtus.pro 61%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by AVULUS in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
44% · 248 games56% · 31 game
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
43% · 259 games50% · 183 games
Centaur WarrunnerDaxak
Centaur Warrunner
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
45% · 99 games53% · 423 games
BeastmasterAbed
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireJANTER
48% · 136 games59% · 161 game
ChenFly
Chen
Alchemist
AlchemistEkki
51% · 74 games49% · 18 games
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct15:25
AVULUS 42%Virtus.pro 58%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
51% · 258 games46% · 176 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand KingLorenof
56% · 249 games48% · 212 games
BeastmasterDaxak
Beastmaster
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
53% · 134 games48% · 183 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageEkki
49% · 18 games48% · 123 games
SnapfireAntares
Snapfire
Elder Titan
Elder TitanJANTER
48% · 129 games51% · 94 games
Naga SirenFly
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction missed39:28
AVULUS 42%Virtus.pro 58%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:05:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
47% · 36 games48% · 39 games
Anti-MageTimado
Anti-Mage
Undying
UndyingSabeRLight-
45% · 94 games49% · 207 games
Dragon KnightAbed
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingLorenof
58% · 186 games59% · 172 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Alchemist
AlchemistEkki
53% · 112 games40% · 15 games
TechiesAntares
Techies
Snapfire
SnapfireJANTER
41% · 167 games48% · 162 games
DisruptorFly
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 67%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3