?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 22 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 22 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 18 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
24%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 15 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ekki · 14 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 14 games
43%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 21 game
76%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 17 games
41%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
54%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 13 games
46%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 12 games
50%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 11 games
82%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
cutie · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
614 picks · 957 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 419 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 629 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
433 picks · 969 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 526 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 462 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
412 picks · 254 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 655 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total75% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:32
AVULUS 62%VP.Prodigy 38%
The model gave 62% on AVULUS — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 32:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
OmniknightTA2000
47% · 57 games57% · 106 games
Clinkzcutie
Clinkz
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
48% · 342 games53% · 127 games
InvokerKatsura
Invoker
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
52% · 275 games55% · 339 games
Tidehuntertakizawa
Tidehunter
Ringmaster
RingmasterWein
46% · 273 games47% · 546 games
Tinyraregods
Tiny
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
48% · 520 games48% · 349 games
DisruptorJANTER
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct29:20
AVULUS 65%VP.Prodigy 35%
The model gave 65% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTA2000
51% · 264 games55% · 271 game
Timbersawtakizawa
Timbersaw
Puck
Puckdualrazee
48% · 304 games55% · 98 games
Kezcutie
Kez
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
50% · 141 game52% · 131 game
RubickKatsura
Rubick
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
45% · 505 games50% · 524 games
Tinyraregods
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkWein
47% · 230 games48% · 420 games
Shadow DemonJANTER
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct31:11
AVULUS 62%VP.Prodigy 38%
The model gave 62% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinTA2000
53% · 67 games55% · 243 games
Ursacutie
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void Spiritdualrazee
50% · 161 game54% · 210 games
Timbersawtakizawa
Timbersaw
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
44% · 133 games47% · 204 games
Sand KingKatsura
Sand King
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWein
51% · 207 games52% · 60 games
Nyx Assassinraregods
Nyx Assassin
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
49% · 439 games46% · 290 games
DisruptorJANTER
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 75%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3