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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
35%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 16 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 16 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 14 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 13 games
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ekki · 12 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 43 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 38 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 38 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 34 games
62%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Kami · 31 game
61%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 30 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kami · 30 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 941 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 438 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 643 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
484 picks · 645 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
441 picks · 962 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 656 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 538 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
386 picks · 236 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:34
AVULUS 44%Zero Tenacity 56%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverTA2000
51% · 111 games51% · 227 games
BeastmasterKami
Beastmaster
Viper
Viperdualrazee
59% · 58 games48% · 76 games
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
50% · 335 games52% · 94 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
51% · 155 games41% · 136 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWein
51% · 268 games48% · 394 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct19:33
AVULUS 47%Zero Tenacity 53%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckdualrazee
49% · 183 games44% · 67 games
LunaKami
Luna
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTA2000
51% · 192 games47% · 186 games
KunkkaWorick
Kunkka
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
58% · 188 games49% · 69 games
LargoNefrit
Largo
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
50% · 284 games43% · 223 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinWein
70% · 40 games46% · 342 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 59%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2