Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionAAweloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NNoUndyingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Awe
No games played over 6 months.
NoUndying
Batrideroften banned
LastHero- · 9 games
Earth Spirit
velheor · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 6 games
Witch Doctor
BLACKARXANGEL · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 4 games
Earthshaker
velheor · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 814 bans
Void Spirit
357 picks · 488 bans
Mars
306 picks · 538 bans
Death Prophet
274 picks · 443 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 230 bans
Rubick
249 picks · 148 bans
Keeper of the Light
237 picks · 500 bans
Wraith King
235 picks · 356 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Awe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Awe
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:25
Awe 58%NoUndying 42%
The model gave 58% on Awe — the game was taken by NoUndying in 43:58.
Game 2prediction missed9:20
Awe 58%NoUndying 42%
The model gave 58% on Awe — the game was taken by NoUndying in 30:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteAwe · 58%
Series resultNoUndying 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2