ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 1:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 14 games
Batridersignature
天命 · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
天命 · 11 games
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 9 games
Doomsignature
fy · 8 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Chalice · 7 games
Enigmasignature
Chalice · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 7 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
264 picks · 383 bans
Dark Willow
228 picks · 111 bans
Muerta
217 picks · 316 bans
Treant Protector
214 picks · 461 bans
Phoenix
211 picks · 293 bans
Kunkka
188 picks · 486 bans
Nature's Prophet
187 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
187 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 69%
Hero pool strength60% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:26
Azure Ray 44%Blacklist International 56%
The model gave 56% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 43:31.
Game 2prediction missed31:25
Azure Ray 44%Blacklist International 56%
The model gave 56% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 39:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2