The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FEFuture Esportloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Elder Titan
xNova · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
JT- · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
xNova · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Pyw · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
JT- · 1 game
Dark Willow
Pyw · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Monet · 1 game
Future Esport
Oracleoften banned
LOyd · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Night · 3 games
Axe
Irving · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Night · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Irving · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 1 game
Clockwerk
LOyd · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Night · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
522 picks · 589 bans
Jakiro
483 picks · 437 bans
Ringmaster
468 picks · 235 bans
Terrorblade
369 picks · 754 bans
Ancient Apparition
336 picks · 772 bans
Storm Spirit
336 picks · 513 bans
Tusk
321 picks · 290 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:10
Azure Ray 76%Future Esport 24%
The model gave 76% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 24:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenMonet
TinyNight
Storm SpiritSomnus
DawnbreakerIrving
BristlebackJT-
JakiroLOyd
ClockwerkPyw
PhoenixxNova
Game 2prediction correct37:19
Azure Ray 76%Future Esport 24%
The model gave 76% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingSomnus
SlardarNight
GyrocopterMonet
KunkkaIrving
PangolierJT-
UndyingLOyd
Ancient ApparitionxNova
ClockwerkPyw
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 90%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2