The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 1:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
天命 · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
lou · 9 games
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
Silenceroften banned
天命 · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 8 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 56 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 42 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 37 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 33 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 33 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 32 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 30 games
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 29 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
681 picks · 455 bans
Techies
641 picks · 680 bans
Doom
577 picks · 1119 bans
Ember Spirit
503 picks · 1047 bans
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1239 bans
Disruptor
496 picks · 476 bans
Enchantress
465 picks · 716 bans
Pangolier
440 picks · 917 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:6
Azure Ray 43%Gaimin Gladiators 57%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 18:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SnapfireSomnus
TimbersawQuinn
Morphlinglou
LycanAce
EnigmaChalice
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Tinyfy
LiontOfu
Batrider天命
Spirit BreakerSeleri
Game 2prediction correct12:35
Azure Ray 45%Gaimin Gladiators 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusalou
LeshracQuinn
TimbersawSomnus
Bristlebackdyrachyo
EnigmaChalice
TidehunterAce
Tinyfy
Shadow DemontOfu
Pugna天命
IoSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2