BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 3:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Geek Famloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 13 games
Brewmastersignature
Chalice · 11 games
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 11 games
Batridersignature
天命 · 9 games
Lunasignature
lou · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 9 games
Doomsignature
fy · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 7 games
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Jing · 7 games
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 6 games
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Skem · 5 games
Wraith King
Natsumi · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
261 picks · 441 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 375 bans
Centaur Warrunner
227 picks · 300 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
213 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
211 picks · 199 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 361 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 73%
Hero pool strength55% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:5
Azure Ray 65%Geek Fam 35%
The model gave 65% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 22:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordlou
MorphlingNatsumi
TimbersawFaith_bian
Bounty HunterMac
Primal BeastOri
MiranaJing
Chen天命
LionSkem
Techiesfy
Game 2prediction correct27:12
Azure Ray 66%Geek Fam 34%
The model gave 66% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerlou
Troll WarlordNatsumi
Storm SpiritOri
PangolierMac
AbaddonFaith_bian
Dark WillowJing
Lionfy
Keeper of the LightSkem
Techies天命
Game 3prediction missed13:33
Azure Ray 63%Geek Fam 37%
The model gave 63% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 50:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusOri
BeastmasterNatsumi
Lunalou
MarsMac
BrewmasterFaith_bian
Keeper of the LightSkem
Dark Willowfy
BatriderJing
Chen天命
Game 4prediction missed33:40
Azure Ray 66%Geek Fam 34%
The model gave 66% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 1:24:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusOri
LifestealerNatsumi
Razorlou
ZeusMac
SlardarFaith_bian
BatriderJing
Lionfy
Vengeful SpiritSkem
Phoenix天命
Game 5prediction correct24:8
Azure Ray 61%Geek Fam 39%
The model gave 61% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordlou
Monkey KingNatsumi
Ember SpiritOri
Bounty HunterMac
TimbersawFaith_bian
Nature's ProphetSkem
Grimstrokefy
PugnaJing
Elder Titan天命
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 75%
Series resultAzure Ray 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5