ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Go alongloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 13 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Chalice · 12 games
Lunasignature
lou · 12 games
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 12 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 12 games
Batridersignature
天命 · 11 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 10 games
Rubicksignature
天命 · 9 games
Go along
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
TK · 3 games
Dark Willow
TK · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Killa · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
TK · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
TK · 2 games
Zeus
Storm · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 473 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 418 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 447 bans
Lion
259 picks · 227 bans
Vengeful Spirit
250 picks · 156 bans
Nature's Prophet
243 picks · 691 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 335 bans
Magnus
237 picks · 376 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:4
Azure Ray 79%Go along 21%
The model gave 79% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Magelou
Storm SpiritStorm
MagnusFaith_bian
Ember SpiritOri
Grimstrokefy
Rubick天命
Game 2prediction correct23:11
Azure Ray 83%Go along 17%
The model gave 83% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 29:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunalou
ViperStorm
MagnusFaith_bian
Queen of PainOri
Lionfy
Phoenix天命
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 94%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2