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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
fy · 20 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 14 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
天命 · 13 games
23%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
lou · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ori · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
fy · 12 games
42%

Infinity Esports

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Kiri · 8 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Hyko · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Gardick · 6 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Yor · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
33%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
kendallx · 5 games
40%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Genek · 5 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Gardick · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
344 picks · 282 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
342 picks · 255 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 440 bans
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
310 picks · 349 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
308 picks · 301 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 436 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 516 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
300 picks · 484 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:13
Azure Ray 59%Infinity Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordlou
57% · 84 games48% · 199 games
GyrocopterCostabile
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
48% · 183 games47% · 208 games
Dragon KnightPiPi
Dragon Knight
Medusa
MedusapLAnet
48% · 75 games51% · 30 games
Night StalkerILICH-
Night Stalker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFantasy
51% · 203 games52% · 108 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed16:27
Azure Ray 58%Infinity Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordlou
57% · 73 games42% · 126 games
LunaCostabile
Luna
Underlord
Underlordniu
42% · 44 games58% · 125 games
PuckPiPi
Puck
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
46% · 159 games49% · 120 games
BrewmasterILICH-
Brewmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFantasy
44% · 146 games65% · 51 game
OmniknightPanda
Omniknight
Game 3prediction correct44:13
Azure Ray 57%Infinity Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorlou
45% · 143 games53% · 197 games
LunaCostabile
Luna
Pangolier
Pangolierniu
46% · 283 games54% · 111 games
Sand KingILICH-
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkpLAnet
51% · 239 games51% · 259 games
Dragon KnightPiPi
Dragon Knight
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFantasy
53% · 103 games47% · 201 game
ClockwerkPanda
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 65%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3