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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:1
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KEVloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 32 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 28 games
61%
Lion
Lion
fy · 28 games
54%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 28 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
55%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 22 games
68%
Luna
Luna
lou · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 20 games
45%

KEV

Weaver
Weaversignature
flyfly · 9 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Undyne_ · 7 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
29%
Omniknight
Omniknightsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
71%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 7 games
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
RedPanda · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 746 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
430 picks · 630 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 417 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 743 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
380 picks · 164 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 1028 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 729 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% KEV
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total89% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:38
Azure Ray 73%KEV 27%
The model gave 73% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by KEV in 41:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladelou
52% · 95 games39% · 20 games
Outworld DestroyerButterflyEffect
Outworld Destroyer
Axe
AxeFaith_bian
43% · 60 games50% · 211 games
Centaur Warrunner生死
Centaur Warrunner
Beastmaster
BeastmasterOri
45% · 119 games53% · 111 games
Dark SeerUlu
Dark Seer
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor天命
35% · 9 games50% · 119 games
Dark WillowRedPanda
Dark Willow
Tiny
Tinyfy
56% · 211 games58% · 33 games
PudgeUndyne_
Pudge
Game 2prediction correct23:7
Azure Ray 75%KEV 25%
The model gave 75% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 22:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightlou
55% · 53 games49% · 58 games
GyrocopterUlu
Gyrocopter
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendOri
54% · 17 games50% · 94 games
Centaur Warrunner生死
Centaur Warrunner
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFaith_bian
49% · 165 games41% · 9 games
Outworld DestroyerButterflyEffect
Outworld Destroyer
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor天命
42% · 17 games51% · 56 games
BatriderRedPanda
Batrider
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinfy
46% · 16 games50% · 51 game
TuskUndyne_
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct13:2
Azure Ray 76%KEV 24%
The model gave 76% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 17:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFaith_bian
53% · 119 games52% · 168 games
Timbersaw生死
Timbersaw
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlou
51% · 125 games61% · 38 games
MarciUlu
Marci
Leshrac
LeshracOri
52% · 132 games38% · 162 games
Dragon KnightButterflyEffect
Dragon Knight
Chen
Chen天命
57% · 76 games46% · 157 games
PhoenixRedPanda
Phoenix
Clockwerk
Clockwerkfy
49% · 155 games48% · 82 games
IoUndyne_
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 89%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3