?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Luna
Lunaoften banned
lou · 24 games
58%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 21 game
76%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 20 games
60%
Lion
Lion
fy · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Ori · 20 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 17 games
53%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 17 games
71%

LGD Gaming

Lion
Lion
Pyw · 14 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Setsu · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Setsu · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
niu · 12 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
y` · 12 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 12 games
58%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
shiro · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
shiro · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
441 picks · 720 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
418 picks · 671 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
416 picks · 330 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
401 picks · 360 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 518 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
396 picks · 876 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
374 picks · 166 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 178 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Azure Ray
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total67% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:10
Azure Ray 60%LGD Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 35:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladelou
55% · 141 game41% · 47 games
Marcishiro
Marci
Zeus
ZeusOri
53% · 46 games53% · 320 games
Ember SpiritSetsu
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
49% · 131 game47% · 163 games
Death Prophetniu
Death Prophet
Tiny
Tinyfy
43% · 153 games52% · 188 games
TuskPyw
Tusk
Rubick
Rubick天命
54% · 349 games51% · 102 games
Ioy`
Io
Game 2prediction missed11:37
Azure Ray 58%LGD Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlou
36% · 67 games58% · 40 games
Weavershiro
Weaver
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightOri
46% · 105 games48% · 78 games
Queen of PainSetsu
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
50% · 72 games63% · 8 games
Bristlebackniu
Bristleback
Tiny
Tinyfy
47% · 125 games56% · 115 games
TuskPyw
Tusk
Io
Io天命
43% · 30 games59% · 158 games
Disruptory`
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct31:12
Azure Ray 61%LGD Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlou
48% · 67 games50% · 60 games
Queen of PainSetsu
Queen of Pain
Death Prophet
Death ProphetOri
48% · 98 games48% · 103 games
Razorshiro
Razor
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
52% · 124 games42% · 46 games
Dawnbreakerniu
Dawnbreaker
Chen
Chen天命
67% · 50 games47% · 125 games
TuskPyw
Tusk
Lion
Lionfy
47% · 113 games53% · 118 games
Disruptory`
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 67%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3