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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Piggy Killerloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
zzq · 12 games
92%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 11 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
BEYOND · 9 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
zzq · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
天命 · 9 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
7e · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 9 games
67%

Piggy Killer

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Srf · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Frisk · 7 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
mercy · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 6 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
mercy · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Victoria · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Srf · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Mirana
Frisk · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
582 picks · 505 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
482 picks · 1189 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
480 picks · 902 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
426 picks · 1084 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
412 picks · 869 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
406 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
397 picks · 573 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:20
Azure Ray 53%Piggy Killer 47%
The model gave 53% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenlou
61% · 109 games48% · 96 games
Morphlingflyfly
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSomnus
59% · 128 games52% · 113 games
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerChalice
47% · 59 games51% · 85 games
TimbersawSrf
Timbersaw
Pugna
Pugna天命
50% · 80 games35% · 47 games
WindrangerFrisk
Windranger
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerfy
46% · 91 game46% · 126 games
Silencermercy
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct34:21
Azure Ray 54%Piggy Killer 46%
The model gave 54% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterChalice
57% · 190 games37% · 24 games
Muertaflyfly
Muerta
Slark
Slarklou
58% · 72 games51% · 229 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierSomnus
45% · 194 games46% · 188 games
TimbersawSrf
Timbersaw
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
66% · 34 games52% · 102 games
PugnaFrisk
Pugna
Enchantress
Enchantress天命
46% · 146 games42% · 93 games
Spirit Breakermercy
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 56%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2