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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Brightwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
zzq · 12 games
92%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 11 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
BEYOND · 9 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
zzq · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
天命 · 9 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
7e · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 9 games
67%

Team Bright

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
43%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
phoenix · 6 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 5 games
20%
Lich
Lich
Undyne_ · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
20%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 4 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
696 picks · 597 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
562 picks · 493 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
461 picks · 1114 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
450 picks · 826 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 1045 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 836 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
385 picks · 550 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
385 picks · 210 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 55%
Hero pool strength61% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:34
Azure Ray 63%Team Bright 37%
The model gave 63% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Bright in 40:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalou
58% · 75 games56% · 217 games
DoomIrving
Doom
Magnus
MagnusChalice
41% · 97 games50% · 273 games
Pangolierphoenix
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSomnus
48% · 117 games47% · 150 games
SilencerUndyne_
Silencer
Techies
Techiesfy
51% · 115 games
Undying
Undying天命
49% · 236 games
Game 2prediction missed14:44
Azure Ray 66%Team Bright 34%
The model gave 66% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Bright in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidlou
47% · 22 games49% · 100 games
Void Spiritphoenix
Void Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSomnus
50% · 43 games55% · 51 game
Legion CommanderIrving
Legion Commander
Magnus
MagnusChalice
43% · 44 games51% · 176 games
SilencerUndyne_
Silencer
Batrider
Batriderfy
56% · 109 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden天命
46% · 109 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 76%
Series resultTeam Bright 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2