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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Brightloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 11 games
64%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 10 games
80%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
天命 · 10 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Somnus · 10 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Chalice · 9 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
天命 · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
天命 · 9 games
56%

Team Bright

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
43%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
phoenix · 7 games
29%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
phoenix · 6 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 5 games
20%
Lich
Lich
Undyne_ · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 5 games
20%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
605 picks · 642 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
471 picks · 260 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
426 picks · 853 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 390 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
373 picks · 753 bans
48%
Doom
Doom
350 picks · 799 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
347 picks · 858 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
344 picks · 718 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 25%
Hero pool strength55% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:2
Azure Ray 67%Team Bright 33%
The model gave 67% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 17:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorSomnus
51% · 32 games48% · 158 games
DoomIrving
Doom
Night Stalker
Night StalkerChalice
52% · 13 games53% · 158 games
Ember Spiritphoenix
Ember Spirit
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidlou
51% · 81 game42% · 29 games
Elder TitanUndyne_
Elder Titan
Enchantress
Enchantress天命
54% · 200 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritfy
44% · 19 games
Game 2prediction missed19:30
Azure Ray 70%Team Bright 30%
The model gave 70% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Bright in 46:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerlou
52% · 121 game52% · 245 games
Pangolierphoenix
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSomnus
57% · 150 games47% · 20 games
Night StalkerIrving
Night Stalker
Underlord
UnderlordChalice
51% · 61 game42% · 175 games
SilencerUndyne_
Silencer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightfy
50% · 94 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit天命
60% · 14 games
Game 3prediction correct35:36
Azure Ray 69%Team Bright 31%
The model gave 69% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 46:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSomnus
53% · 74 games52% · 211 games
Queen of Painphoenix
Queen of Pain
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinlou
49% · 101 game48% · 405 games
PangolierIrving
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaChalice
54% · 125 games51% · 114 games
LichUndyne_
Lich
Doom
Doomfy
44% · 173 games
Batrider
Batrider天命
47% · 257 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 83%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3