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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 16 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 12 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
天命 · 12 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Chalice · 11 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
fy · 9 games
89%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
fy · 8 games
38%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%
Lycan
Lycansignature
zai · 14 games
79%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
Nisha · 13 games
54%
Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 13 games
85%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 12 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Nisha · 12 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Nisha · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 437 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
235 picks · 327 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
234 picks · 114 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
221 picks · 325 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 432 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
205 picks · 177 bans
48%
Kunkka
Kunkka
203 picks · 541 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
197 picks · 269 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:28
Azure Ray 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursalou
45% · 146 games55% · 252 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Puck
PuckXm
42% · 207 games53% · 159 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Slardar
SlardarXxs
51% · 23 games55% · 98 games
VenomancerSabeRLight-
Venomancer
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
50% · 336 games45% · 33 games
CheniNSaNiA
Chen
Batrider
Batrider天命
55% · 321 game45% · 491 game
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed38:24
Azure Ray 43%Team Liquid 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidlou
57% · 73 games46% · 130 games
UrsamiCKe
Ursa
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
49% · 109 games51% · 129 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterXm
51% · 34 games44% · 129 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Rubick
Rubick天命
49% · 313 games52% · 98 games
LichiNSaNiA
Lich
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXinQ
48% · 70 games52% · 113 games
LionBoxi
Lion
Game 3prediction missed26:16
Azure Ray 42%Team Liquid 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 27:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunalou
52% · 83 games52% · 68 games
TimbersawSabeRLight-
Timbersaw
Viper
ViperXm
48% · 49 games48% · 23 games
RazormiCKe
Razor
Visage
VisageXxs
57% · 112 games52% · 27 games
WindrangerNisha
Windranger
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinXinQ
54% · 30 games51% · 113 games
Nature's ProphetBoxi
Nature's Prophet
Marci
Marci天命
45% · 132 games44% · 175 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 61%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3