Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Luna
lou · 24 games
Tinysignature
fy · 24 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
Lion
fy · 23 games
Techiessignature
天命 · 21 game
Primal Beastsignature
Ori · 20 games
Rubicksignature
天命 · 19 games
Zeussignature
Ori · 19 games
Team Spirit
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 25 games
Rubick
Mira · 22 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 20 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 19 games
Lion
Mira · 17 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 16 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 786 bans
Batrider
462 picks · 953 bans
Crystal Maiden
457 picks · 202 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 611 bans
Techies
452 picks · 345 bans
Mars
444 picks · 699 bans
Rubick
440 picks · 203 bans
Pangolier
429 picks · 734 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:33
Azure Ray 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razorlou
WindrangerYatoro
Dragon KnightOri
SniperLarl
BrewmasterFaith_bian
Primal BeastCollapse
Batrider天命
TinyMira
Lionfy
Vengeful SpiritMiposhka
Game 2prediction missed21:29
Azure Ray 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomFaith_bian
LeshracLarl
Clinkzfy
BristlebackYatoro
Death ProphetOri
Primal BeastCollapse
Slarklou
ChenMiposhka
Io天命
Dark WillowMira
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 60%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2