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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Zeroloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 13 games
62%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Chalice · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 12 games
83%
Luna
Lunasignature
lou · 10 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 9 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
fy · 8 games
88%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
lou · 8 games
88%

Team Zero

Batrider
Batridersignature
iceice · 12 games
83%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 9 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
zzq · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 7 games
43%
Muerta
Muertasignature
iceice · 6 games
83%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
7e · 5 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
7e · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Cty · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 431 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
245 picks · 372 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
241 picks · 330 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
212 picks · 298 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
211 picks · 203 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
190 picks · 491 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
179 picks · 325 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:25
Azure Ray 68%Team Zero 32%
The model gave 68% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordlou
44% · 53 games53% · 286 games
Nature's ProphetCty
Nature's Prophet
Zeus
ZeusOri
49% · 58 games49% · 27 games
Slardar7e
Slardar
Magnus
MagnusFaith_bian
45% · 128 games53% · 75 games
BrewmasterBEYOND
Brewmaster
Pugna
Pugnafy
53% · 99 games54% · 261 game
Batridericeice
Batrider
Rubick
Rubick天命
46% · 361 game52% · 50 games
Jakirozzq
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct20:8
Azure Ray 72%Team Zero 28%
The model gave 72% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 32:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaOri
51% · 67 games47% · 80 games
LunaCty
Luna
Ursa
Ursalou
50% · 55 games51% · 33 games
VisageBEYOND
Visage
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
46% · 86 games53% · 112 games
Magnus7e
Magnus
Chen
Chen天命
58% · 39 games61% · 49 games
Earthshakericeice
Earthshaker
Lion
Lionfy
43% · 62 games42% · 35 games
Jakirozzq
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 85%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2