B8 Esports vs D2 Hustlers — prediction EOKL2ОК · Dota 2

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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

B8 Esportsloss 0:2

series probability

34%66%

probability at match start · final 0:2

D2 Hustlerswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Rubick

CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games

45%

Techiesoften banned

Lodine · 9 games

33%

Beastmasteroften banned

Funn1k · 8 games

38%

Batrideroften banned

CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games

43%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Dendi · 7 games

29%

Skywrath Magesignature

CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games

86%

Windranger

StoneBank · 7 games

29%

Bloodseekeroften banned

StoneBank · 5 games

40%

D2 Hustlers

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Vengeful Spirit

218 picks · 272 bans

52%

Grimstroke

185 picks · 204 bans

53%

Dark Willow

184 picks · 79 bans

51%

Pangolier

183 picks · 392 bans

53%

Earthshaker

169 picks · 169 bans

59%

Sven

169 picks · 248 bans

57%

Earth Spirit

155 picks · 250 bans

45%

Phoenix

155 picks · 213 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%

Hero pool strength51% D2 Hustlers

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total66% D2 Hustlers

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct10:23

B8 Esports 44%D2 Hustlers 56%

The model gave 56% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 38:11.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo