Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
Rubick
illusion · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 5 games
Enchantress
Duster · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 5 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
RdO · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Duster · 4 games
Hellbear Smashers
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 10 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 7 games
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
284 picks · 569 bans
Void Spirit
253 picks · 322 bans
Mars
226 picks · 404 bans
Earth Spirit
211 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
185 picks · 333 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 569 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 207 bans
Wraith King
178 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 72%
Hero pool strength67% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:23
B8 Esports 25%Hellbear Smashers 75%
The model gave 75% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 31:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordRdO
Phantom AssassinAce
Shadow FiendDendi
Death ProphetStormstormer
Shadow Shaman[T]SA
Dragon KnightMISERY
OracleDuster
ChenGilgir
49% · 24 games
Crystal MaidentOfu
Game 2prediction correct17:28
B8 Esports 27%Hellbear Smashers 73%
The model gave 73% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendDendi
JuggernautAce
Wraith KingRdO
InvokerStormstormer
PuckDuster
Dragon KnightMISERY
Earthshaker[T]SA
GrimstroketOfu
35% · 67 games
RubickGilgir
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 87%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2