?
arrow_backBack to match
Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 12 games
83%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 11 games
73%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kidaro · 9 games
78%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 16 games
69%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 12 games
67%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 12 games
58%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Daxak · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 11 games
82%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 10 games
40%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
OwnedMe · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 347 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
239 picks · 114 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
218 picks · 474 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
210 picks · 302 bans
45%
Muerta
Muerta
203 picks · 301 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 412 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
195 picks · 197 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
194 picks · 361 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:31
B8 Esports 54%Level UP 46%
The model gave 54% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Level UP in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverNande
55% · 39 games47% · 32 games
LunaFocus
Luna
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirage
44% · 50 games45% · 58 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Night Stalker
Night StalkerStoneBank
61% · 27 games49% · 35 games
AxeDavai
Axe
Chen
ChenMary_y
66% · 16 games46% · 104 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCTOMAHEH1
53% · 97 games
Game 2prediction missed17:33
B8 Esports 51%Level UP 49%
The model gave 51% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Level UP in 30:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverNande
46% · 42 games63% · 31 game
LunaFocus
Luna
Magnus
MagnusDendi
48% · 89 games45% · 25 games
AxeDavai
Axe
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerStoneBank
44% · 62 games54% · 96 games
Primal BeastStojkov
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenMary_y
59% · 30 games46% · 76 games
Skywrath MagedEsire
Skywrath Mage
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
44% · 5 games
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 50%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2