Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 1:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 8 games
Disruptor
Lodine · 8 games
Techies
Lodine · 7 games
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
Lucky Bird
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Yadomi · 6 games
Underlordoften banned
Satoshi- · 6 games
Ursaoften banned
blessed kid · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Satoshi- · 5 games
Slarkoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
713 picks · 614 bans
Disruptor
594 picks · 517 bans
Beastmaster
494 picks · 1226 bans
Doom
493 picks · 948 bans
Ember Spirit
439 picks · 1097 bans
Pangolier
428 picks · 884 bans
Mirana
414 picks · 219 bans
Enchantress
410 picks · 587 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:16
B8 Esports 42%Lucky Bird 58%
The model gave 58% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 46:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomFunn1k
TerrorbladeArgius
WindrangerStoneBank
Venomancerblessed kid
Storm SpiritDendi
Keeper of the LightCTOMAHEH1
Crystal MaidenLodine
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 58%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1