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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 20 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
65%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 15 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 14 games
86%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 14 games
57%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
42%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 20 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 15 games
53%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 418 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
274 picks · 406 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 439 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
229 picks · 207 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 598 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
216 picks · 186 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 301 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
210 picks · 92 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 49%
Hero pool strength57% B8 Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:38
B8 Esports 48%MarsBet Team 52%
The model gave 52% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidFocus
54% · 168 games58% · 117 games
SlarkLukas
Slark
Tidehunter
TidehunterStoneBank
48% · 164 games46% · 271 game
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Ember Spirit
Zeus
ZeusDendi
44% · 58 games50% · 126 games
WindrangerMr. Luck
Windranger
Batrider
BatriderCTOMAHEH1
49% · 334 games45% · 188 games
TinyBignum
Tiny
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMary_y
46% · 129 games60% · 151 game
Dark WillowLeBronDota
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct17:35
B8 Esports 49%MarsBet Team 51%
The model gave 51% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 50:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenFocus
63% · 92 games47% · 89 games
Queen of PainW1sh-
Queen of Pain
Abaddon
AbaddonStoneBank
47% · 46 games46% · 106 games
SlarkLukas
Slark
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDendi
54% · 161 game50% · 84 games
HoodwinkBignum
Hoodwink
Lion
LionCTOMAHEH1
43% · 118 games46% · 113 games
MarsMr. Luck
Mars
Pugna
PugnaMary_y
55% · 111 games48% · 136 games
Dark WillowLeBronDota
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 53%
Series resultMarsBet Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2