Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Void Spirit
Dendi · 27 games
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
Linasignature
[T]SA · 23 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 22 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Dendi · 20 games
Bane
Sammyboy · 19 games
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 18 games
Snapfire
Alexxo · 18 games
No Sorry
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
LastHero- · 3 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Worick · 3 games
Disruptor
BLACKARXANGEL · 2 games
Jakiro
BLACKARXANGEL · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Worick · 2 games
Treant Protector
BLACKARXANGEL · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
556 picks · 373 bans
Queen of Pain
485 picks · 584 bans
Mars
451 picks · 611 bans
Weaver
427 picks · 773 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 180 bans
Kunkka
355 picks · 548 bans
Spirit Breaker
347 picks · 575 bans
Wraith King
288 picks · 355 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)16% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:29
B8 Esports 47%No Sorry 53%
The model gave 53% on No Sorry — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinyv1olent-
InvokerWorick
Death ProphetDendi
MarsLastHero-
MagnuspJonn
OmniknightBLACKARXANGEL
little data
Techiesy0nd
Game 2prediction correct20:29
B8 Esports 46%No Sorry 54%
The model gave 54% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 35:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knightv1olent-
TinyWorick
NecrophospJonn
BeastmasterLastHero-
Ember SpiritDendi
Dark Willowy0nd
53% · 78 games
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Game 3prediction correct38:42
B8 Esports 48%No Sorry 52%
The model gave 52% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 57:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinyv1olent-
InvokerWorick
Queen of PainDendi
Legion CommanderLastHero-
MagnuspJonn
Dark Willowy0nd
43% · 19 games
OmniknightBLACKARXANGEL
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 57%
Series resultNo Sorry 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3