B8 Esports vs NoTechies — prediction DPC2S—С2Д 2 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

B8 Esportswin 2:0

series probability

53%47%

probability at match start · final 2:0

NoTechiesloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Puckoften banned

Dendi · 14 games

36%

Shadow Shaman

[T]SA · 10 games

30%

Terrorbladeoften banned

RdO · 8 games

50%

Death Prophetoften banned

Dendi · 7 games

43%

Rubick

[T]SA · 7 games

43%

Wraith Kingoften banned

RdO · 7 games

29%

Enchantressoften banned

Duster · 6 games

50%

Earthshaker

[T]SA · 5 games

40%

NoTechies

Witch Doctor

Solo · 6 games

33%

Earthshaker

Zayac · 5 games

40%

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

Solo · 5 games

60%

Marsoften banned

Ergon · 5 games

Bounty Hunteroften banned

Zayac · 4 games

50%

Nyx Assassinoften banned

Zayac · 4 games

50%

Pugnaoften banned

Malik · 4 games

50%

Storm Spiritoften banned

Ergon · 4 games

75%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

454 picks · 981 bans

52%

Void Spirit

430 picks · 589 bans

53%

Death Prophet

371 picks · 695 bans

57%

Mars

348 picks · 609 bans

54%

Earth Spirit

325 picks · 301 bans

49%

Grimstroke

288 picks · 252 bans

45%

Tusk

287 picks · 181 bans

52%

Phoenix

279 picks · 394 bans

60%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)33% vs 25%

Hero pool strength51% NoTechies

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total53% B8 Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct25:13

B8 Esports 54%NoTechies 46%

The model gave 54% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 30:59.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo