The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 19 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 13 games
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 13 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 12 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 12 games
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
nouns
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 17 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 17 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 15 games
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
Techiessignature
Fly · 13 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
465 picks · 746 bans
Mars
433 picks · 694 bans
Techies
430 picks · 345 bans
Tiny
422 picks · 548 bans
Batrider
417 picks · 896 bans
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
Crystal Maiden
397 picks · 176 bans
Rubick
390 picks · 193 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total87% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:22
B8 Esports 28%nouns 72%
The model gave 72% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasteregxrdemxn
TerrorbladeYuma
Faceless Voidrincyq
TidehunterGunnar
MagnusDendi
PangolierCopy
Shadow DemonMary_y
BatriderLelis
TinyCTOMAHEH1
DisruptorFly
Game 2prediction correct16:45
B8 Esports 26%nouns 74%
The model gave 74% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 36:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DazzleDendi
BloodseekerYuma
Primal Beastegxrdemxn
Monkey KingCopy
Slarkrincyq
MarsGunnar
DisruptorMary_y
BatriderLelis
GrimstrokeCTOMAHEH1
Crystal MaidenFly
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 87%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2