B8 Esports vs Prosti Esli — prediction DPC2S—С2Д 2 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

B8 Esportsloss 1:2

series probability

47%53%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Prosti Esliwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Puckoften banned

Dendi · 13 games

38%

Shadow Shaman

[T]SA · 10 games

30%

Terrorbladeoften banned

RdO · 8 games

50%

Death Prophetoften banned

Dendi · 7 games

43%

Rubick

[T]SA · 7 games

43%

Wraith Kingoften banned

RdO · 7 games

29%

Enchantressoften banned

Duster · 6 games

50%

Earthshaker

[T]SA · 5 games

40%

Prosti Esli

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

436 picks · 959 bans

53%

Void Spirit

415 picks · 585 bans

53%

Death Prophet

363 picks · 676 bans

56%

Mars

341 picks · 591 bans

53%

Earth Spirit

309 picks · 282 bans

50%

Tusk

274 picks · 180 bans

51%

Phoenix

265 picks · 383 bans

61%

Grimstroke

263 picks · 227 bans

45%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)35% vs 53%

Hero pool strength53% Prosti Esli

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total53% Prosti Esli

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct11:29

B8 Esports 47%Prosti Esli 53%

The model gave 53% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by Prosti Esli in 41:03.

Game 2prediction missed24:9

B8 Esports 47%Prosti Esli 53%

The model gave 53% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 30:30.

Game 3prediction correct7:27

B8 Esports 47%Prosti Esli 53%

The model gave 53% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by Prosti Esli in 29:37.

Model check result

Model favoriteProsti Esli · 53%

Series resultProsti Esli 1:2

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game2 of 3