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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 1:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Sand King Gomezloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
8%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 10 games
20%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 10 games
20%
Techies
Techies
Lodine · 9 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
29%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
14%

Sand King Gomez

Mirana
Mirana
N1NE · 11 games
36%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 7 games
57%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
N1NE · 4 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Jubei · 4 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jubei · 3 games
0%
Io
Iooften banned
Jubei · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
711 picks · 615 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
594 picks · 516 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
495 picks · 1231 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
494 picks · 955 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
441 picks · 1099 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
428 picks · 883 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
416 picks · 220 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
410 picks · 588 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total50% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
B8 Esports 50%Sand King Gomez 50%
The model gave 50% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 28:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeStoneBank
41% · 86 games57% · 177 games
Keeper of the LightN1NE
Keeper of the Light
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFunn1k
53% · 110 games47% · 222 games
SilencerJubei
Silencer
Pudge
PudgeDendi
44% · 36 games
Batrider
BatriderLodine
49% · 110 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
53% · 57 games
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 50%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1