European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Shaman
CTOMAHEH1 · 23 games
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
Magnusoften banned
Dendi · 18 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 17 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 16 games
Chenoften banned
Mary_y · 14 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 14 games
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 18 games
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 16 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 14 games
Templar Assassinsignature
ряф^^ · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
476 picks · 210 bans
Tiny
432 picks · 604 bans
Batrider
391 picks · 737 bans
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 531 bans
Rubick
380 picks · 156 bans
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 303 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 702 bans
Mars
332 picks · 544 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:23
B8 Esports 48%SIBE Team 52%
The model gave 52% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerrincyq
Bristlebackselfhate
Primal BeastDendi
Puckряф^^
Enigmaegxrdemxn
Batridersunset
RubickCTOMAHEH1
GrimstrokeSOhY
Shadow DemonMary_y
Game 2prediction correct25:40
B8 Esports 48%SIBE Team 52%
The model gave 52% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 47:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightDendi
Zeusряф^^
Chaos Knightrincyq
Pudgeselfhate
Beastmasteregxrdemxn
Spirit Breakersunset
GyrocopterCTOMAHEH1
Crystal MaidenSOhY
BaneMary_y
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 51%
Series resultSIBE Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2