B8 Esports vs Team DogChamp — prediction DPC2S2САПД · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1

result vs prediction

B8 Esportsloss 0:1

series probability

40%60%

probability at match start · final 0:1

Team DogChampwin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Primal Beastoften banned

Dendi · 15 games

20%

Snapfire

Alexxo · 14 games

43%

Rubick

MoOz · 9 games

22%

Drow Rangeroften banned

StoneBank · 7 games

29%

Broodmotheroften banned

Davai · 6 games

50%

Linasignature

StoneBank · 6 games

83%

Mirana

Lodine · 6 games

33%

Pangolieroften banned

Davai · 6 games

50%

Team DogChamp

Clockwerksignature

Bloody Nine · 19 games

74%

Invokeroften banned

RCY · 15 games

53%

Pangoliersignature

RCY · 11 games

73%

Techiessignature

yarintheslayer · 10 games

60%

Beastmastersignature

ITALIANO GANGSTA · 9 games

89%

Crystal Maidensignature

Bloody Nine · 9 games

67%

Treant Protectorsignature

Bloody Nine · 9 games

67%

Ember Spiritoften banned

RCY · 8 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

893 picks · 618 bans

49%

Tiny

635 picks · 442 bans

52%

Nature's Prophet

538 picks · 853 bans

54%

Treant Protector

536 picks · 544 bans

55%

Tusk

536 picks · 433 bans

47%

Snapfire

477 picks · 329 bans

46%

Death Prophet

467 picks · 1001 bans

51%

Clockwerk

440 picks · 314 bans

56%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)39% vs 65%

Hero pool strength62% Team DogChamp

Head-to-head1 – 0

Model total60% Team DogChamp

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct44:49

B8 Esports 43%Team DogChamp 57%

The model gave 57% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 1:02:38.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo