Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Empirewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 26 games
Linasignature
[T]SA · 25 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 25 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 23 games
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 12 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Limitless · 12 games
Lycansignature
Limitless · 11 games
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 11 games
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 19 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 16 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Shachlo · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
268 picks · 347 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 388 bans
Monkey King
253 picks · 588 bans
Lion
226 picks · 103 bans
Bane
221 picks · 145 bans
Void Spirit
221 picks · 250 bans
Lina
216 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
216 picks · 267 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 37%
Hero pool strength52% Team Empire
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:31
B8 Esports 50%Team Empire 50%
The model gave 50% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Team Empire in 29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladev1olent-
Naga Sirenlightless
Void SpiritDendi
Legion CommanderGhostik
BeastmasterActor
Ember SpiritShisui
DisruptorLagoona
Skywrath Mage[T]SA
53% · 55 games
Ogre MagiKaori
Game 2prediction correct10:18
B8 Esports 49%Team Empire 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 21:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razorv1olent-
Bloodseekerlightless
Queen of PainDendi
SlardarGhostik
BrewmasterActor
Shadow FiendShisui
SnapfireLagoona
JakiroKaori
44% · 76 games
Io[T]SA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 53%
Series resultTeam Empire 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2