European Pro League Season 14 · BO5
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 3:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Team Ticklesloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 12 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
V-Tune · 10 games
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
Chensignature
Mary_y · 9 games
Rubicksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Team Tickles
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 16 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 9 games
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 9 games
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 8 games
Dark Seersignature
Force · 8 games
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 8 games
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
267 picks · 362 bans
Dark Willow
236 picks · 108 bans
Treant Protector
213 picks · 477 bans
Muerta
208 picks · 316 bans
Phoenix
201 picks · 294 bans
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 390 bans
Vengeful Spirit
184 picks · 153 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 74%
Hero pool strength50% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:7
B8 Esports 35%Team Tickles 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingStoneBank
LunaUlnit
Lone DruidLowskill
Dark SeerForce
EarthshakerDendi
Dragon KnightLorenof
Shadow DemonCTOMAHEH1
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
PhoenixMary_y
PugnaDukalis
Game 2prediction correct24:35
B8 Esports 38%Team Tickles 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 51:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightLowskill
AlchemistUlnit
SlardarStoneBank
PangolierLorenof
KunkkaDendi
WeaverDukalis
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
Vengeful SpiritForce
Ancient ApparitionMary_y
ClockwerkNARMAN
Game 3prediction missed34:13
B8 Esports 37%Team Tickles 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 50:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlardarStoneBank
Naga SirenUlnit
Faceless VoidLowskill
AlchemistForce
KunkkaDendi
MagnusLorenof
PhoenixMary_y
SnapfireNARMAN
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
WeaverDukalis
Game 4prediction correct23:39
B8 Esports 39%Team Tickles 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 1:05:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidLowskill
Phantom AssassinUlnit
SlardarStoneBank
MagnusLorenof
PuckDendi
Dark SeerForce
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
PhoenixDukalis
GrimstrokeMary_y
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
Game 5prediction missed34:8
B8 Esports 38%Team Tickles 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenLowskill
LunaUlnit
PuckDendi
Primal BeastLorenof
SlardarStoneBank
TidehunterForce
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
EnchantressNARMAN
GrimstrokeMary_y
ClockwerkDukalis
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 74%
Series resultB8 Esports 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5