Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 9 games
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 9 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Davai · 7 games
Linaoften banned
[T]SA · 7 games
Phantom Lancersignature
Watson · 7 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 7 games
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 24 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
Linasignature
hAze · 15 games
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 13 games
Timbersawsignature
laise · 12 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
400 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
358 picks · 130 bans
Nyx Assassin
282 picks · 576 bans
Dragon Knight
272 picks · 358 bans
Mars
271 picks · 427 bans
Winter Wyvern
261 picks · 244 bans
Puck
258 picks · 578 bans
Lina
249 picks · 376 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 68%
Hero pool strength53% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:31
B8 Esports 38%V-Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 25:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzWatson
TerrorbladeTA2000
PuckDendi
Night Stalkerlaise
Vengeful SpiritLimitless
BatriderhAze
Nyx Assassin[T]SA
Keeper of the LightArrOw
47% · 51 game
DisruptorMalady
Game 2prediction correct14:48
B8 Esports 33%V-Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 27:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidWatson
Templar AssassinTA2000
Night StalkerDendi
PuckhAze
JakiroLimitless
Bloodseekerlaise
Keeper of the Light[T]SA
Treant ProtectorMalady
56% · 37 games
Shadow DemonArrOw
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 77%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2