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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 14 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Alexxo · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Sammyboy · 9 games
44%
Luna
Luna
YamSun · 8 games
25%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
YamSun · 8 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Sammyboy · 6 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Sammyboy · 6 games
17%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Alexxo · 6 games
67%

Wildcard Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
Alexxo · 7 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
iAnnihilate · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Boris · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
The Warden · 5 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
The Warden · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Ark · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
356 picks · 345 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
344 picks · 335 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
245 picks · 246 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
226 picks · 147 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
224 picks · 180 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
208 picks · 548 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
202 picks · 420 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
195 picks · 111 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength53% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:36
B8 Esports 47%Wildcard Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverStoneBank
51% · 211 games52% · 195 games
TerrorbladeArk
Terrorblade
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDendi
49% · 337 games52% · 315 games
MarsSunlight
Mars
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFunn1k
53% · 256 games52% · 240 games
Ember SpiritBabitich
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickMoOz
50% · 233 games43% · 309 games
SnapfireFrancisLee
Snapfire
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLodine
53% · 167 games46% · 145 games
Treant ProtectorSammyboy
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed33:15
B8 Esports 44%Wildcard Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendDendi
43% · 113 games55% · 131 game
UrsaArk
Ursa
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordStoneBank
45% · 49 games55% · 184 games
LeshracBabitich
Leshrac
Snapfire
SnapfireFunn1k
44% · 260 games55% · 224 games
UndyingSunlight
Undying
Tiny
TinyMoOz
50% · 429 games54% · 105 games
SilencerFrancisLee
Silencer
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLodine
47% · 122 games52% · 329 games
TuskSammyboy
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct4:23
B8 Esports 45%Wildcard Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenStoneBank
54% · 55 games53% · 44 games
Naga SirenArk
Naga Siren
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendDendi
46% · 97 games52% · 91 game
TimbersawSunlight
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightFunn1k
46% · 236 games50% · 335 games
TinyBabitich
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLodine
45% · 139 games53% · 213 games
SnapfireFrancisLee
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMoOz
49% · 255 games54% · 99 games
PugnaSammyboy
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 59%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3